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26Jan/170

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So, I've been doing some calculations.  I mean, really real calculations.

And... I think I've got consistent trading figured out.

We're talking small trades.  Like, a dollar per share over the course of a day or two.

I know, you're just like, big deal right?  What's the big deal of a dollar.

Well... 1 dollar can be a big deal!  If you amplify it.  So, I'm not going to discuss amounts in anything other than theory and models.

Let's use the following example....

Lets examine the stock 3m (Symbol is MMM) and how small trades could have turned into big money.

SO, we're going to look at a 30 day price movement.

3m is currently at 176.82.  That's 176.82 a share.  So, one share will cost you that amount.  10 shares costs 1768.20 and 100 shares costs 17,6820.00.  SO... what about 1000 shares?

176,820 dollars.

Wow.  Who has that kind of money though?

Eh, people do.  Trust me.  There are people that have that kind of money.  Plenty of people.

Let's say hypothetically speaking, you have 200 k to trade with...

And let's say you could have made trades on 1 stock in the last 30 days with that 200k... How much could you have made?

Let's have a look.

SO, 3m stock is our stock of choice... The amount to trade with will be 200 grand.  The trade times will be between 1 and 3 days.  Preferably the same day in and out, but holding overnight is fine because 3m is one of those stocks that just doesn't have a lot of price movement since it's considered a bluechip dividend aristocrat stock.

Now, the rule on trading that I'll be using is bottom and mid Bollinger bands.  Bollinger bands are an indicator of volatility.  It gives you a frame of reference in stock price movements.

My rule will be to buy when it taps the bottom Bollinger band and sell when it hits the mid band.

What's my possible income off that 200 grand?

So my first trade was end of day on December 28th.  A  buy at 178.30.  Then I sold the shares the next day at 178.87.

So, that's 1000 shares and 57 cents per share.  Or, 570 bucks.

Not bad for one days work.

Oh, now, before I go on, remember that there are taxes to be paid on this... and commissions.  So the actual take-home is less.  But still... For two mouse clicks?  Not bad, considering if you wanted to make 500 bucks waiting tables at 10 bucks an hour... You'd have to work 50 hours.

Okay, now let's go to our next trade.  Oh, let me stop here and say, that over this 30 day period of time, 3m is actually down 1 percent.  SO if you had just bought shares a month ago and held those shares as a buy and hold strategy instead of active trading, you'd actually have lost money.  1 percent of 178k... Or 1780 dollars.

Let's keep going...

So, our next trade has to wait... There's a 3 day waiting period for cash to settle.  So, you can't actually trade again on that same cash until it settles 3 business days later.

Actually, let's assume we don't care about the 3 day cash settle period.

Next buy and sell...

Buy 177.33 January 3rd.  Sell 178.71 on January 5th.

How much money did we make that time from our hypothetical rule based trade?

Well... If you times both prices by 1000 and then subtract the smaller number from the larger... You get the difference...

$178,710 minus $177,330...

$1,380.

That's a 2 day trade, holding on the 4th... for a net profit of 1380 bucks.

2 mouse clicks.  One buy, and one sell.  1 thousand shares in... and 1 thousand out.

Next trade.

So, the next trade is actually later on that afternoon on the 5th, so, this is a skipped trade in the real world due to the Good Faith Violation rule and trading on unsettled cash.

But let's assume maybe you had multiple lots of 200 grand to trade with... Look at you, big spender!

You buy in later that day at 177.30... then sell at 178 the very next day... another 700 bucks in your pocket.

Our next trade comes on the 10th as a buy and a sell on the 11th of January...

In at 176.50 and back out 177.30.

SO, there's what?  Another 800 overnight.

Next trade is in at 176.30 on the 12th and out later that day at 177.26.

Basically 960 bucks in one day.

The next trade then doesn't happen though until the 24th... While there are opportunities, I'm sticking with my Bollinger band strategy.  Bottom buy, mid sell.

There's a huge scary sell off all the way down to 175.50 or so... It goes up and down in that bottom there for a while before it starts to rebound again later that morning... By the next morning it crosses the mid band at 178 a share.

So, in 24 hours, the net profit was 2.50 a share... Or 2500 bucks at 1 thousand shares in and out.

Tally all that up?

And you're doing pretty well.  So, if you'd just HELD your shares for the last 30 days, you'd be down about 1700...

If you'd actively traded according to bottom and mid buy and selling...

You'd be up quite a pretty penny.

Now, let's assume that you trade all those same trades... On margin.

Margin is where you borrow capital from the investment firm to leverage your trades.  You then pay interest on the time that you have the money in the market.  So, if you trade for 24 hours, and you pay a 5 percent margin rate... 5 percent divided by 365... or 1/365th of 5 percent would be the cost you'd have to pay in margin on that borrowed money.

It's well worth it if you're right.

Assuming a 2 to 1 margin on all those trades... You just doubled your income for those 30 days.

Yeah.  That's some serious cash.

Welcome to Wall street style day trading using a boring bluechip conglomerate stock.

Oh, but you ask what happens if you're wrong and it goes down?

Could happen.  But, let's assume you even got stuck with the shares during a fairly big market correct... First off... It's 3m stock.

If you go back on the 10 year history, or even the 20 year history... 3M has been paying a dividend and increasing it EVERY single year now for 58 consecutive years.

58 years!  That means if you just don't freak out and hold your 178 grand in shares... Eventually, you'll start getting quarterly payments in the form of dividends, and every year those payments will increase.  As well, during every correction... 3m eventually recovered.

Basically, yes, you could be wrong, and you can sell out and take a small loss and then keep going...

Or, you can just hold on to your britches, collect the dividend, and wait it out until you go back into the green.

It's 3M.  The odds of 3M completely going out of business and you losing ALL your money, are fairly slim.

It's mostly about just being able to stomach the ups and downs.  But those who can... Can make some serious cash from the volatility.

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