Coffeeshop Hunt
So, while all of my peers are tying knots and popping out little babes... I'm on the hunt for the most fantastic coffee shop I can find. I mean, let's be real, I'd be keen on the knots and baby thing too, but that requires, you know, a significant other. Given that all the dating sites are a bust, and the bar scene is a no-go... I'm bored with life and spending my time doing random things like this coffeeshop hunt I'm on.
Yesterday I went to a small shop inside a train station about 10 minutes from my house. Today I decided to drive into the city and check out La Colombe. It's giant. I mean for coffeeshops.... This space is just enormous. I'm a fan.
I was going to get some grub but, there's no food after 3. Oh well. I did get coffee and a very delicious muffin.
Anyway, the parking sucks... But the coffeeshop is great.
The thing I can say about this coffee shop is that the energy is intense. There's a lot of high energy smart people here. It's good for writing. Most of the other coffeeshops are like 2 or 3 people and they are, you know, like... I don't know, I guess I can't explain it. They are just not as intense. People here are working away on laptops or having conversations about city things. I like it.
I was going to show up early this morning, but I slept late. Honestly, I just can't wake up early in the mornings. I try. I can't. I'm not an early bird. I'm a late bird, if I'm even a bird at all.
Anyway, I'm going to get back to writing, and stock researching and what not. They close at 7pm sadly. But, still they are open later than a lot of other shops that close at 5pm. I really do wish I were an early bird... I'll have to try again one time to get here in the morning hours and then I can stay for a while longer. Although, the parking is for 2 hours only anyway, so coming early in the morning might not allow me to stay all that long anyways because I'd still have only 2 hours with the spot. I'd have to move my car every 2 hours anyway.
I could always come down via regional rail or something. Well anyways, they're actually going to kick us out soon... Soooo... I guess I must be on my way soon. Until the next blog post.
Bankrupt
So... One of my stocks filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy.
I knew it was coming, like last summer. A lot of the other companies in the same industry had already filed for bankruptcy as well. Honestly, I'm surprised they lasted as long as they did.
So, what's the deal and what happens now?
Well, let's talk about it!
First off, this stock is now completely and utterly worthless (well, kind of... I'll talk about that later). It's BEEN worthless for a while now, ever since they scrapped their dividend a year ago after finally cutting it completely.
Why am I not all that upset? Eh, it's a learning lesson... But there's more to it than that. There's future potential for benefit.
So, what exactly are we talking about here? Well, it's an MLP, that's master limited partnership. It was a U.S. oil and natural gas company. They were formed about 10 years ago when the shale and fracking boom started. If I knew now what I knew then, I wouldn't have invested. But that's why most successful investors are like old people. They learn what works and what does.
Again, why am I not upset? One word, diversification.
I currently own 53 different stocks. So, one of them tanking 100 percent really doesn't make me weep. Additionally, I already have made enough money in trades last year to account for this loss...
Here's the thing though, I've yet to take the loss. Why? Well, it has to do with my trading strategy. Aside from the 1 trade that I've made which is a test trade at swing trading, I basically trade like an actuary calculates insurance stats.
It's all about odds. One hundred 1 dollar gains always outweigh one 50 dollar loss. But the odds of 1 dollar gains are pretty much 100 percent.... The odds of a 50 dollar loss are basically 1 percent, or less.
It's about odds. If you collect a million 1 thousand dollar yearly home insurance premiums as an insurance company and you pay out ten 1 million dollar complete losses of houses... You still make money.
Take the odds of anything happening? Then calculate all the sub odds to get the odds in your favor.
SO, in investing, what are the odds you are going to put money into any one stock that is going to do one of two things... get a 40 thousand percent return... Or, drop to zero and go completely bust.
Both of them are not very likely. What are the odds that you're going to get a 10 percent loss, or a 10 percent gain? How about a 10 percent loss, or gain, versus 50 percent?
The 10 percent is very likely. VERY likely. The 50 percent? Not as likely, but still also possible.
Here's how most trading works... People buy shares, then 2 weeks later, or 2 months later, those shares are at a 10 percent loss, or 20 percent loss... I can't tell you how many hundreds of trades I've made where I've almost immediately lost 10 percent in value.
It's soooo common.
What happened there? I just held my shares. I bought companies that pay a dividend (monthly, quarterly, annually) and just hold and collect my dividend.
Then 2 months, or 2 years later, I take a 10 or 20 percent gain after the stock reverses its course.
It's about riding the psychological rollercoaster.
Most people panic and sell, losing money.
This is why I don't like to leverage on margin. Most of the time, you will be wrong. Most of the time, you'll be stuck holding a stock, if you're on margin though, you have to answer to a margin call and they may force you to liquidate a losing position to reclaim their debt on the borrowed capital. This is why I only buy dividend paying stocks. I get stuck holding stocks like 90 percent of the time. I'm almost always wrong. At first 10 years ago, it was frustrating and I was just like... HOW can I figure this out?
The answer is, you can't. The stock market has no logic in the short term. It's just a crazy random mess. Sometimes there are trends... But what you really need to focus on are the macro trends and the quarterly reports of the companies, you have to know what they actually do. If a company has a soaring stock price, but they have no revenues, and are losing cash like crazy... Why is that price going up? Usually what goes up for no reason other than pump and dump by investors, must come down.
Anyways, so how likely is a stock to go up 100 percent? Not all that likely... But how likely is a stock to wipe out 100 percent? Again, not all that likely.
What has to happen for a complete loss... The company has to go out of business.
This does happen. So, what's the deal? Why not just sell and get out?
When a stock drops like ALL the way to zero... There are some things that happen... So... Business is full of big companies and little companies. Some companies even after going bankrupt have value.
It's that value that is important. You have good will... Like brand recognition by customers. There's a lot of different things that do happen when you just hold shares.
Just hold. Keep holding. History says, odds are, you'll be rewarded for being patient.
Yes, there is a VERY small chance your shares just get zeroed out and that's it, you take a tax loss on the trade.
Even then, you're rewarded by having lower taxes for that year.
You're almost always rewarded as an investor. If you borrowed money for the trade, like margin, that's bad. You're rarely rewarded over the long term if you aren't VERY VERY skilled at making trades.
It's a bit like if you stay at a casino long enough, you'll lose all your money, because the long term odds are stacked in favor of the house. Casinos wouldn't be in business if it weren't profitable in the long run.
Stocks are generally almost always profitable in 3 cases...
- Stay long. Never short. Never borrow money to trade. Do your research, do a LOT of research, then buy shares, and hold on for dear life. If it completely bites the dust... Tax loss harvest it. You can hold a loss forever for future tax loss harvesting as long as the company stays in business.
- Dividends. Always hold for dividends. Even if you hold a stock at a loss for 10 years, but every single year that company is paying you a quarterly dividend, and hey, maybe the are even increasing the dividend every single year... You can then take that money and use that money to start new investments... Just like a tree, giving off seedlings every year. Even if that tree eventually dies and goes 100 percent gone... You're planting new trees every year who then start generating each of their own seedlings. Trees die all the time in forests... But it doesn't take the whole forest with it. Does it? Stocks go sour in any portfolio... But as long as you have diversification, your portfolio keeps growing.
- Finally, after riding out that loss, or maybe even there's no loss and you caught a bottom... Don't fangirl a stock... Once it's up significantly, sell off profits and diversify them into something new.
That's really all there is to it. Most people overly complicate it.
So, if this company is bankrupt why haven't I sold the shares yet?
Well, there are multiple kinds of bankruptcy. This company filed for chapter 11... That's a restructuring.
It's all up to the courts and what happens with their creditors.
I plan to hold my shares until they are ripped from my hands. But why?
Again, it's about odds. The odds of anything happening from nothing are 100 percent. If someone has nothing left to lose... They have everything to gain. If I sell my shares at this point while they are still trading on the open market... I take a tax loss, but I can always still get that. If I can always still take the tax break... Why not just see what happens?
Let's say someone else buys the company or assets and my shares get converted to that company. It's possible that won't happen. Two years ago I got 10 cents on the dollars in cash for a stock I had owned.
Another tree that died after many years of just sitting there sick in the forest. It happens. But that year, I still made money, because the rest of the trees covered that loss.
I paid less taxes that year because of the loss. But I still made more money than my loss.
So, maybe this will happen in this case. Or, perhaps this company will emerge from bankruptcy and restructure... Then they will fly high again and I'll begin receiving dividends yet again which I will cash out and then invest in something new... and the stock price will fly higher than it ever had before.
If I'd sold out.... I would have missed all that.
It's like breaking up with someone who is broke and depressed and at their lowest point in life, right before they catch the big break and skyrocket to the top.
Investing is about being patient, and also about potential.
It's about speculating... But it's also about knowing that on a longer time frame... Oil prices won't stay at record lows. The only reason for this company to be where it's at, is because its income was tied to a commodity price crash.
They tried to hold out and ride out the crash, but, they eventually had to file bankruptcy.
I'll continue to hold my shares because 5 years from now I could be rewarded. Who knows, they may just eventually send a notice to all shareholders that it's over and that's that... But they may also eventually split off into 5 different companies 20 years from now and then I'll have income and shares in all those 5 different companies. Just because I sat there and held.
The biggest lesson anyone can learn in life about anything... Is that how things are right now, at this moment, are not how they will be in the future.
In the roaring 20s people had no clue that the great depression was right around the corner.
Just as people who lived through the depression had no idea how the 40s 50s and 60s would be.
Even the largest trees to grow in a forest could have been the seeds from a tree that died long ago in a forest fire that wipe out that tree and many others... but that seed survived and thrived in the soil in the years to come.
But hey, trade and invest how you want. What do I know... I have no real formal training or education in the stock market. I just buy things I like, and then hold on for dear life. If I'm right, I take profits and diversify those profits and dividends into new investments and then hold those, and diversify those profits and dividends... And then when a tree dies in my investment forest... it dies. The key is to keep planting new ones... Because trees will always die no matter how large they grow. I invest for the forest, not the individual trees.
The largest forests in the world aren't large because of the size of any individual tree.
Pinot Grigio Part 2
So, I'm finishing up the rest of the bottle of wine that I opened last night. I drank about half the bottle last night and I'm savoring the second half of the bottle tonight.
I'm currently in the process of eating dinner while sipping. As well I'm writing this blog, and then on another tab I'm purchasing my ticket to my friend Jesse's show at the World Cafe Live on Valentine's Day. I'm pretty excited about that. His last show was really fun. So, it'll be another good night I'm sure. I usually leave right after work and get there early and snag a seat at the bar. Then I have a few beers, and order some munchies and enjoy the show.
Hold on, I have to go refill my glass with more wine...
Well, I'm now on the last of this wine as the bottle is officially empty. Okay where was I?
Oh yes... Jesse's show. Anyways, I've been to a million of them. It's always a quality evening. He's a great performer. He's supposed to be on The Today show on February 10th, or something like that.
He's moving on up!
So, yeah... That's how I'll be spending my Valentine's Day.
Well, I'm just going to relax and enjoy the rest of this wine. It's actually pretty good, I feel like the second day after being in my fridge with a little Vac U Vin cap on it... I think it's even better tasting than yesterday.
I'm still surprised it didn't go bad! So, I'm considering it a win. Obviously it would have been better to open it up and share it all those years ago with that girl... But I'm okay with how it all turned out.
It's beyond my control anyways. Just have to accept things as they are.
Nothing like spending a Friday evening in some comfy lounge around the house clothes unwinding with a glass of nostalgic wine... So, I'm just enjoying the moment for what it is.
2009 California Pinot Grigio
Well, I finally cracked open this bottle of wine. It's...Well, I mean, it had special meaning to me for years. I've packed it away, and re-found it over and over again over the years. Surprisingly it's actually drinkable. It's a little bit muted on the flavor, and there's a very TINY hint of vinegar happening, but we're talking, barely much at all. I feel like another couple years and it would have been destined for the drain. Actually, I just took another sip and I take back the vinegar part. It's fine. It's just not very flavorful. It's just like, toned down really. But, actually, it's pretty good, now that I'm about a glass in.
So, the backstory is, I bought this bottle of wine in 2011 for this girl that I met in 2010. Well, technically we first began talking to one another at the VERY tail end of 2009 on this dating site. She was editing photos. I was on my winter break from work.
Our first message... It was basically...
Me: Hey what's up?
Her: Hey... What are you doing?
Me: Working on music. What about you?
Her: Editing photos...
And then we just talked on and off for a few months before finally meeting up.
We then met in person in March of 2010. Stuff happened.... and what not...
Then we went separate ways in like, November of 2010. But, I couldn't get her off my mind... Truth is, I still can't. She's still very much so on my mind a good amount of the time.
Anyways, I bought her this bottle of wine for her Birthday on February 2nd of 2011. I sent her a little email about it... a few days before hand, or maybe it was a text. I feel like it was a text message...
Anyways, I never ended up getting the chance to give it to her, that year, or any of the years since.
Fast forward.... She moved away... And then eventually met a guy... and then I was like... blah, ewwww.
And now I'm just like... Eh... well, oh well. Hey, if she's happy, what should I care. You know?
SO, here I am drinking it on her birthday. I'm guessing she's having some kind of birthday dinner, maybe just finishing up. With friends... Family... Maybe that lover she met... Maybe an entirely new lover... Maybe there's no lover anymore... Maybe she's engaged or married. Maybe she's single again. I have no idea. I couldn't stand to still keep tabs on her once she met someone. It just made my stomach queasy.
Maybe she's just at home and not out with anyone. Maybe she's... Anyways, who knows.
SO, here I am sitting drinking some wine and about to eat dinner of my own and watch some Netflix.
Never have I met someone who so much influenced me. I mean... So hey at least there's that.
Sometimes you cross paths with people and it works... Sometimes you cross paths and become friends... And sometimes you cross paths and... then you end up drinking a bottle of wine you bought for them 6 years earlier that you never got the chance to give them.
Life is like that. Life just kind of happens. And then there's wine that you thought might have gone bad, but it turns out it was still good. This bottle of 2009 Pinot Grigio from a winery in California.
So, cheers and Happy Birthday wherever you are tonight.
Digital Detective
Today I stayed a little later at work than I normally do to track down a networking issue. I'm not going to go into specifics... But, when it comes to residence halls and students plugging network equipment into the jacks in the rooms...
Well, they pretty much show up to campus with anything and everything.
SO, be ready!
Anyways the issue is resolved. It took me a little while using the usual networking tricks in my bag and data from the devices we have that are campus owned to pin down the issue and resolve it.
It's super exciting though. Hello inner computer geek/nerdy self! I always love a chance to play "Digital Detective" and remotely connect to devices and collect information and then figure out who's doing what where and what the deal-y-o is... It did't take me too long to figure it all out.
Anyways, it was exciting. I mean, most days are just... I could literally do IT stuff in my sleep. But every now and then there's an exciting thing that happens and I get a chance to spring into action and really have a challenge at work.
Well, I'm off to make a late dinner and then hit up the gym! I was going to do yoga tonight but i'm missed the latest class they have available. SO, I'll just yoga tomorrow night and gym it up tonight. What an exciting life I lead, I tell ya.